Registration of Voters may be biggest obstacle to Sudan referendum

Reports today are indicating that registration of voters in the Sudan referendum is slow:
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-11-16/southern-sudanese-in-north-avoid-registering-for-independence-referendum.html

If anyone knows if the text of the Sundanese Referendum Law is posted somewhere on the internet, please let me know.

Publication on states accepting independence referendum results

I found a July 1 2010 piece in the Herald (Scotland), in which a professor argued that the Scottish National Party may wish to push ahead with a referendum on independence even though polls show a majority are against it, with history being on its side:

"Indeed, a quick glance at the 16 referendums on independence in the past 100 years show only one country rejected the outcome of a referendum on this matter. That was Denmark’s rejection of the 51% to 49% outcome of the independence referendum for the Faroe Islands in 1946. Apart from this, all independence referendums have been accepted, even if the outcome has been close, as it was when Malta voted for secession from the UK by a margin of less than 1% in 1964."
The full article can be read here: http://www.heraldscotland.com/comment/guest-commentary/could-or-would-the-scots-vote-to-go-it-alone-1.1038547

I emailed the professor and it seems that the number 16 in terms of referendums is from a reference which is probably now out of date.  Since the fall of the Soviet Union and Yugoslavia, many referendums in the 1990s and 2000s have had their results rejected by the state involved.  Yugoslavia refused to recognize the results of the referendums in Croatia and Bosnia, for example.  South Ossetia's referendum on independence was of course rejected by Georgia.

EU to monitor Sudan voter registration for referendum

The European Union's delegation in Sudan has announced that it will monitor the voter registration process.  I can't find anything on their website yet, so for now here is a secondary source: http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5iRTEwRWCruVXK-sJuavmimTrl9bQ?docId=CNG.c475d315dd94dc3d274371ac27c49236.6e1

It is somewhat unusual to have international observers at voter registration.  Registration usually takes longer than voting and counting ballots, and may take place in more diffuse ways and locations, so cost becomes a factor. 

The Carter Center also has monitors in Sudan to register the voter registration process: http://www.cartercenter.org/countries/sudan-peace.html

Bermuda ballot used in 1995 referendum

The form of ballot used in the 1995 Bermuda referendum is available for viewing here: http://www.scribd.com/full/42168964?access_key=key-9z4q5wqkjz1tczlnrpd

Eritrea independence referendum ballot paper

A sample of Eritrea's 1993 referendum ballot paper is available here:

http://aceproject.org/ero-en/regions/africa/ER/Eritrea%20-%20ballot%20paper%20%28referendum%29.jpg/image_view_fullscreen

Trilingual, colour-coded, short and simple question.  The only thing that is confusing is how it is supposed to be marked.  As I understand it, voters were to mark a large "X" across the entire red or blue voting square.

East Timor Ballot

A picture of the ballot for the 1999 East Timor vote on independence is available here:

http://www.un.org/peace/etimor99/POSTERS/ballot.pdf

Without delving into the question, it is a well designed ballot.  It is in colour and has pictograms for illiterate people, it is written in four languages (English Portuguese, Tetun and Bahasa-Indonesian), and has arrows and coloured areas showing where to vote. 

That having been said, the question is very confusing.  The ACCEPT option is to remain part of Indonesia, while the REJECT option is for East Timorese independence.  One would normally expect the "Reject" option to be for the maintenance of the status quo.

Second, the pictogram is confusing.  The independence option shows East Timor connected to the rest of Indonesia, while the autonomy option shows the territory of East Timor on its own, quite the opposite of intuition.

Finally, I find the "Accept" option describes the legal arrangement incorrectly:  "Do you ACCEPT the proposed special autonomy for East Timor within the Unitary State of the Republic of Indonesia?"  My reading of the autonomy plan ( http://www.etan.org/etun/annex.htm ) have been for a special autonomous region with powers set out in "constitutional framework" annex of a treaty between Portugal and Indonesia, ie., having the force of internaitonal law.  A unitary state is one where all power remains with the central government and any power that it does not exercise is merely delegated and can be revoked at any time.  This could have led to misunderstandings had this option won the vote.

Morocco rejects Western Sahara independence referendum

In a 1991 a peace treaty with Polisario to end the uprising in Western Sahara, the Moroccan government promised to hold a referendum on independence.  After stalling and disagreements, mainly on compiling the electoral list, the government changed its mind and now refuses to have a vote on independence, offering instead some measure of autonomy for the region: http://www.monstersandcritics.com/news/europe/news/article_1596294.php/Morocco-rejects-referendum-on-Sahara-independence

This is a fascinating case study on how compiling the voters list in an independence referendum can have a huge impact on the potential outcome (and the agreement of the parties on whether to participate in holding the referendum).  I will be writing more about this in future posts.